Quantitative Models for Supply Chain Risk Analysis in Water Tank Manufacturing: A Case Study of a Factory in Aba, Nigeria

Quantitative models for supply chain risk analysis of water tank manufacturing company factory Aba, Abia state has been studied. Aba being one of the biggest cities known for commercial activities in southern part of Nigeria, couple the weight of weight and area of a water tank, has made the supply mechanism of the product costly. This study delves into the complexities of supply chain management, aiming to identify risk assessment models, vulnerabilities, propose optimal scenarios, and recommend enhanced risk management strategies. Risk factors identification, route time estimation, critical path analysis, cost-related risk assessment, comparison of logistic choices, and decision tree and mitigation were used to instigate and determine the best path for the supply flow of the system and save cost. From the results obtained, the analysis reveals that PATH 6 is the most time-efficient route, with the critical path identified as 62 hours, furthermore, two transportation/logistic choices were compared, with the second choice considered more cost-effective (N6.6m) than the first (N6.9m), the developed decision tree model, explores vulnerabilities in the supply chain and proposes mitigation strategies. This research has suggested some applicable guides to optimize supply chain managements, which includes partnering with distributors, leasing warehouses, or collaborating with retailers, with each decision weighed against various factors and costs to align with the company's best interests. The study underscores the importance of considering every component of the supply chain during decision-making to effectively mitigate risks.